Historic El Niño Could Reshape Winter Weather Across the Midwest and World

Winter is supposed to arrive with frozen lakes, snow-packed ski trails, and snowplows growling before sunrise. This year, that script could get flipped. One of the strongest El Niño events on record is building over the tropical Pacific, and forecasters say it could shake up everything from snowfall and lake ice to cross-country skiing and spring water supplies.

A rapidly strengthening El Niño could rank among the strongest on record, increasing the likelihood of a milder winter across much of the Midwest. Forecasters at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center say the event has a high probability of persisting through early spring 2027, with its greatest influence expected from late fall through winter. El Niño often shifts the jet stream in ways that favor warmer temperatures, fewer prolonged Arctic outbreaks, and more variable snowfall across the northern United States.

Ranking of each El Nino event since 1877, with the collective model forecast for 2026-27, by far the most significant in history.

PHOTO CREDIT, ZEKE HAUSFATHER/THE CLIMATE BRINK

What Is El Niño?

Meteorologists are watching this event closely because it is developing during an already exceptionally warm period in Earth’s climate history, raising questions about how the two influences may interact.”El Niño is a naturally occurring climate cycle, paired with La Niña, that begins in the tropical Pacific near the coast of Chile and is marked by warmer sea temperatures,” explains Steve Ackerman, UW–Madison NOAA professor Emeritus. Although warming occurs thousands of miles from the Midwest, it influences weather around the globe by shifting tropical rainfall, changing atmospheric pressure patterns, and altering the jet stream. “Those global shifts generally increase the chances of warmer temperatures and less snowfall in the Upper Midwest, though not in every location or every storm,” said Ackerman.

During many El Niño winters, the Pacific jet stream becomes stronger and more active across the southern United States while the polar jet stream often remains farther north. Even so, El Niño does not eliminate winter. Individual snowstorms, ice storms, and Arctic outbreaks can still occur, especially when storm tracks align favorably.

Why This Event Stands Out

“The 2026 El Niño is projected to be one of the strongest in years. The last major event, in 2023–24, coincided with the warmest global temperatures ever recorded, and this episode could add to already elevated global heat,” Ackerman said.

This event is also unfolding against the backdrop of a warming climate. “Researchers are still working to understand how that added heat may shape El Niño’s regional effects, including possible links to broader ocean-circulation patterns. El Niño releases stored ocean heat into the atmosphere, contributing to above-average global temperatures,” Ackerman explained.

Historically, strong El Niño events have been associated with wetter conditions across parts of the southern United States, warmer winters across many northern states, drought in some regions, and excessive rainfall in others. While those broad patterns are well established, local weather still depends on the evolution of individual storm systems.

Smokey summer weather in the Midwest may be a long term trend due to warming temperatures. Canada’s boreal wild res cause the smoke which are driven by rising temperatures and lightning, not forest mismanagement.

PHOTO CREDIT ZEKE HAUSFATHER/THE CLIMATE BRINK

What It Could Mean for the Midwest

“Instead of extended stretches of deep cold, communities may experience more frequent thaws, additional rain or mixed precipitation events, and less persistent snow cover,” Ackerman said. Snowfall remains the greatest uncertainty. “While strong El Niño winters often produce below-normal snowfall across portions of the Great Lakes and eastern Midwest, snowfall ultimately depends on the track of individual storm systems. A single well-positioned storm can still deliver significant snow, while slight shifts in temperature or storm track may turn what would have been a snowstorm into rain, sleet, or freezing rain,” Ackerman has seen those changes firsthand. “We did a lot of cross-country skiing when we moved to Wisconsin in the late 1980s from Colorado. We’ve had to drive further and further north to find good skiing.”

Lessons from Last Winter

The winter of 2025–26 illustrated just how uneven Midwest snowfall can be. Far northern Wisconsin received above-normal snowfall, while many southern portions of the state finished with only 50 to 75 percent of their average seasonal totals, averaging about 29”. “What we are seeing in southern Wisconsin is associated with global warming,” Ackerman said.

“Researchers are studying what will happen when this is superimposed with an intense El Niño.”

Ironically, the entire state was snow-covered on December 1 for the first time in more than two decades, with nearly the entire Great Lakes region beginning meteorological winter under a blanket of snow. By season’s end, snowfall totals varied dramatically from one region to another.

Michigan’s Upper Peninsula experienced one of its snowiest winters in years. Marquette measured nearly 200” of snow, while Mohawk on the Keweenaw Peninsula received an astonishing 361”. Calumet topped 300”, and observers near Munising reported near record snowfall.

UW–Madison NOAA professor Jon Martin cautions against drawing sweeping climate conclusions from a single snowy season. “Big lake-effect events will still occur when cold north winds cross relatively warm lake waters, but year-to-year variation is large.” For anyone who has never experienced a true lake-effect snowstorm, Michigan’s Upper Peninsula offers an unforgettable experience. Snow can fall several inches per hour as powerful winds create near-whiteout conditions. These storms are often forecast with impressive accuracy, but they can overwhelm road crews and even delay grooming at ski areas because snowfall accumulates faster than trails can be maintained.

Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard of the website Bring Me The News noted that while the Twin Cities received near-normal precipitation, snowfall varied widely across Minnesota. Outside the Twin Cities and Cook County, much of the state, especially southern Minnesota, finished below normal, underscoring how localized winter snowfall can be.

Winter Recreation and Water Resources

Thinner snowpack and more frequent thaws can shorten ski seasons, complicate trail grooming, and place additional pressure on winter tourism businesses. Fat-bike trails also require consistently frozen ground to remain rideable without damage. Occasional mild periods may briefly extend opportunities for cycling or paddling where rivers remain ice-free. Ackerman has watched those changes unfold over the course of his own winters in Wisconsin. “I love winters, but I’ve been starved for a good old-fashioned heavy snow winter. I’m planning on a starvation diet again,” he said.

NOAA and National Weather Service Cuts

As meteorologists monitor one of the strongest projected El Niño events in decades, many scientists are expressing concern over proposed reductions to the nation’s weather and climate research programs.

The Trump administration is cutting the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) budget by approximately $1.7 billion – one quarter of its entire budget – including the elimination of much of the agency’s climate research. The proposal would also significantly reduce funding for weather and ocean laboratories, cooperative research institutes, the National Ocean Service, and NOAA’s climate research grants program, which provides roughly $70 million annually to universities and research organizations. Martin believes those cuts would have lasting consequences. “The reductions target climate research, satellite programs, and university-affiliated cooperative programs. Our country is losing critical tools for monitoring and measuring weather and climate, from satellite data to weather-balloon observations that help calibrate forecasts. Elon Musk and his 22-year-old tech bros were creating public policy by plowing through agencies, reducing staff without reason. This is a horrible loss.”

He argues that reducing scientific capacity comes at a time when better information is becoming increasingly important. “As the Southwest struggles with drought and climate risks continue to grow, we should be improving our ability to observe and understand the atmosphere, not pretending the problem does not exist as the current administration does. We are essentially handing leadership in this science to countries such as China and India when the United States should be leading. We can, and must, do better.”